2013 In Review: How Last Year's Predictions Worked Out

“I don’t care. We’ll decorate it and it’ll be just right for our play. Besides, I think it needs me.”
Charlie Brown – A Charlie Brown Christmas

Another year has quickly come and gone, way too fast for us!  Before we launch head first into 2014, we found a few 2013 tidbits to share with you.  Hope you enjoy.

Have a great holiday, our best wishes for 2014 and thanks for the opportunity to work with you.

On Economy, Tax and Finance:

  • Money Magazine
  1. Housing – prices will rise 1%; reality, prices soared 12%
  2. Employment – 173,000 new jobs added per month; reality, 190,000 jobs
  •  Another major housing crisis – didn’t happen
  • Unemployment will be higher – didn’t happen
  • One of the “to big to fail” banks will indeed fail – didn’t happen
  • Major drought and major dust storms in the USA – did happen
  • Price of gas will drop – did happen
  • Interest rates will rise, 3.75% for 30-year treasury – didn’t happen
  • Crowd funding will become an integral ongoing part of financing both non-profits and for-profit social enterprises; a $1b opportunity – the jury is still out
  • Under Armour stock will outperform Nike – Go Baltimore

On Social and Environmental Trends:

  • We’ll run out of fossil fuels this century; either switch to renewable energy NOW albeit with a lot of pain or plan for alternative solutions NOW – the jury is still out
  •  Young entrepreneurs are the new creative and exciting business role models; more young people will start their own businesses – happening
  •  2013 is the Year of the Woman on social media; greater economic power and the internet means the ladies will no longer tolerate the status quo – way happening

Do you know what happened on the below predictions?

On Technology Education (Princeton’s Center for Information Tech):

  • A self-driving vehicle will be involved in a fatal accident triggering a backlash against self-driving vehicles
  • A drone will be used in creepy fashion by a civilian
  • Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC’s) will enroll more students; there will be consolidation in the market for these platforms
  • Mobility – the mobile era is the new craze, dependency on mobile devices for personal, business is endless. Security is a major concern
  • Smart phones vs tables – who wins the battle?  Bets are, smart phones will rule
  • Will Google glass headsets (think chunky looking glasses) replace hand held devices… stay tuned

On Marketing and advertising (econsultancy.com):

  • Marketing analytics converge – cloud computing merges with big data tools to give marketers a more holistic view of all the consumer touch points
  • Consumers will control – test drive products in the store but, actual purchase will be online using your mobile device
  • Smart TV breaks through – web connected TV’s will offer what you want, when you want it and, get rid of the 200 channels you never watch anyway

On People:

  • Bill gates returns to Microsoft as interim CEO
  • Warren Buffett is on the move, will spend $40b on an acquisition
  • Jamie Dimon will retire from JP Morgan Chase

On Politics:

  • A major political fight (dem v rep) over the debt ceiling
  • Fed budget deficit will  continue to increase,  5-years in a row
  • Public employee pension plan obligations for CA or Il will be off loaded to Fed
  • Democrats will struggle with elections and blame President Obama for not being tough enough and not sending the right message
  • Republicans will blame John Boehner for not being a true conservative and for selling the party out
  • The Supreme Court will consider pay-for-delay patent licenses in the drug industry.  As a result, more attention paid to anticompetitive patent licensing practices in tech industry

On ACC (ok, this is 2014 basketball predictions made by a true Maryland fan):

  • Duke #1
  • UNC #3
  • UVA #5
  • MD #10 (sad)

See you in 2014; we predict it’s going to be a good one for you!!

Ed Davis, CPA, CVA
Harvest Business Advisors
Business Brokers, Business Valuations, Business Transactions